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Perspective of a Canada Bread Franchisee

Archive for October, 2010

Interview With Michael McCain

Posted by Jeff Lefler on October 17, 2010

Interview With Michael McCain from Diane Francis at the Financial Post

Maple Leaf Foods Inc. has been in the news recently after unveiling a new five-year strategic plan to revamp its business and after a 30% jump in its stock price since August when a shareholder agreement ended between the McCain family and the Ontario Teachers Pension Plan and investment firm West Face Capital Inc. bought one-third of the Pension’s stock holding. CEO Michael McCain spoke this week with The Financial Post. His family owns 32% of Maple Leaf and also one-third of privately-held global french fry giant, McCain Foods Limited of New Brunswick.

Q Teachers sold why?
A “Teachers sold one-third of their position which means they own 25%, the family 32% and West Face 10%. Teachers is in the asset allocation business and they have been doing selling recently. I’m in the food manufacturing business, not asset allocation. West Face is in the investment business.”

Q How has Maple Leaf stock fared?
A “Our stock’s been flat and that’s not good, but the S&P500 is worth less than it was 12 years ago and the stocks of our two main US competitors, Kraft Foods and Sara Lee Corporation, have gone down even though they did not suffer a currency problem or a product recall crisis as we did. I tell our employees this is cold comfort but it’s the context.”
“We’ve dealt with four years of adversity. The economic impact of the higher Canadian dollar costs Maple Leaf Foods in excess of $130 million a year, and the product recall [the listeriosis outbreak in 2008] is costing $80 million a year. In 2009, that’s a total of $210 million against cash flow of $344 million, or 60%. The recall’s effects, which are recoverable, resulted in an immediate 55% reduction in volumes in our premium brand and the entire category went down by 25%. We have been recovering those volumes and are at 90% of pre-recall levels. To do this, we have had to compress margins.”

Q Have you suffered any negative effects from the financial collapse of 2008-09?
A “We are a rather recession-proof industry, but the collapse in markets hurt our pensions which is costing the company $30 million a year out of earnings. Even so, earnings in 2010 should be ahead of last year by 8% to 10%.”

Q What’s the strategic plan and background to it?
A “The plan, costing $1.3 billion, is to close the productivity gap. It includes our normal capital spending of $175 million a year but also includes strategic capital. We have a productivity gap, the legacy of a 65-cent dollar and now we have the opportunity to close this and we need shareholder support.
“Fifteen years ago, when we got into this business, we spent the first ten years making 30 acquisitions in the protein and bakery segments, brought their products into either number one or number two positions in the markets and finished our industry rollout in 2004. We hoped to harvest all our hard work but it didn’t happen. The Canadian currency began to appreciate and between that year and 2010 the dollar increased by 50%.”
“Our acquisitions were spread across the country which were competitive only at a 65-cent dollar. We were making hot dogs for 34 million people in Canada in six locations and our competitor Kraft was making hotdogs in two or three locations for 307 million people. The productivity gap is, for instance, if a new technology comes along and I want to invest $20 million, I have to buy six of those technologies. If the six plants are closed and one large-scale plant replaces them I have to buy the technology only once.”
“We began restructuring in 2007 because of damage from the stronger dollar then the product recall tragedy happened. We would have been having this conversation two years ago but the crisis set us back a couple of years. For a couple of years, we have been sending teams of engineers to do cost benchmarking in the US and Europe and they found that our manufacturing costs were 15 to 25% higher than the best in class, in a thin margin business. We had to invest in scale and in technology. Every economist in this country has been chiding business to solve this productivity gap and our plan will do that. So why shouldn’t capital markets support that?”
“The average plant size in the US is 2.2 times’ bigger. Our plan, which will give us scale, through new facilities and technology and simplified product lines, will greatly improve our results, based on dollar parity. By the way, the higher Canadian dollar has one benefit. It makes the new technologies to enhance productivity more affordable because these are imported from the US and Europe. What would cost C$20 million today for US$20 million in technology would have cost C$30 million [of 65-cent dollars] to buy US$20 million in technology.”
“We are undertaking product portfolio simplification which has marketing and operational aspects. Consumers are clearly telling us that simplifying our categories is a preference, there are too many complications in the shopping experience. We have well over a dozen combinations of a single product based on size and diameter. We don’t need that. We can consolidate with no difference to the consumer. Obviously this simplification means higher volume batches which enhances productivity too.”

Q I understand you have also taken a hit from American exporters as our currency increases and theirs decreases?
A “In the protein business the US manufacturers have doubled their market share from 4% to 8% since our dollar began to rise. In the past two years, 25 food manufacturing plants in Canada have closed involving 5,000 jobs. The J.M. Smucker Company shut two plants and moved operations to a bigger and better plant in Ohio. Food manufacturing is bigger than auto manufacturing and employs 200,000 Canadians so fixing our productivity gap is critical to stop jobs from going south. It also affects the farmers and suppliers.”

Q Should Canada peg the dollar to the US to stop these problems?
A “I’m not an economist and I’ve not talked to anybody, who understands economics, who thinks that’s a good idea. We cannot rely on a strategy of hope, or shift in policy, concerning the dollar. Our plan is a good news story because we have an opportunity to solve the currency problem. It’s not a plan of misery. This is clear, simple, achievable and affordable.”

Q I know I’ve asked before but will Maple Leaf Foods and McCain Foods merge some day?
A “Never.”

Posted in Ideas | Tagged: , , , | 1 Comment »

Is Maple Leaf In For A Fight?

Posted by Jeff Lefler on October 7, 2010

From Boyd Erman at Globe & Mail: Did Maple Leaf do enough to avoid a fight?

Maple Leaf Foods Inc. may have a fight on its hands.

The meat and bakery company’s new plan to improve its results looks a lot like the old plan to improve results. That’s unlikely to be enough to placate the activist shareholders at West Face Capital Inc., who took a big stake in Maple Leaf this summer.

The fact that Maple Leaf is largely sticking with its original plan to invest in its businesses to try to drive margins higher could be read as a direct challenge to West Face.

West Face head Greg Boland and his partners at the firm have been silent about their plans since acquiring the stake, but given that they weren’t satisfied with the company’s original direction, this seems unlikely to change that.

One of the issues that is believed to bother West Face is the level of capital spending at Maple Leaf. The new plan sticks to many of the capital projects underway, and adds a new meat facility.

“It’s unlikely they [West Face] are supportive of the Maple Leaf Foods plan given the level of capital investment required,” National Bank Financial analyst Jim Durran said in a note. Mr. Durran said he’s optimistic that the shares will continue to perform well, because either Maple Leaf shows results on its plan or West Face will start to agitate more vigorously for change.

“We expect to see continued improvement in investor sentiment as the market’s expectations for value-creation strengthen – whether this occurs through MFI’s long-term strategic plan or other value-creation activities initiated by West Face remains to be seen.”

Posted in Investor Relations, Maple Leaf Foods | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Maple Leaf’s Plan to Boost Stock

Posted by Jeff Lefler on October 6, 2010

MSN Money (PR Newswire): Maple Leaf’s new plan

TORONTO, Oct. 5 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ – Maple Leaf Foods (MFI:TSX) today announced details of a comprehensive plan to significantly increase near and longer term shareholder value. The plan, which was unanimously approved by the Company’s Board of Directors at its annual strategy review, builds on a strategic direction previously approved by the Board in September 2009.

Maple Leaf expects the plan will deliver substantial earnings growth in each of the next five years. Specifically, the company expects its plan will increase EBITDA margin by more than 75% over the next four to five years – from a current level of 7% to 9.5% in 2012, and 12.5% in 2015.

The plan includes several initiatives that are expected to increase margins in the near term, of which several require little or no capital investment. Many of these near-term initiatives are well underway, including pricing and normalization of trade promotional activity, simplification of bakery and meat products formulation and manufacturing, early facility rationalization, and the implementation of an integrated SAP system that will provide a base to enhance business performance and further reduce administration and processing costs.

The plan also contemplates a series of plant consolidations, coupled with strategic capital investments in new manufacturing capacity and technology. This will include construction of two large scale facilities: a bakery in Hamilton, Ontario that is planned to be commissioned in mid-2011; and a new prepared meats facility, with construction planned to commence in 2012. These investments are expected to materially increase the profitability and competitiveness of Maple Leaf’s manufacturing facilities and its distribution network.

“Maple Leaf Foods has a clear and achievable plan to deliver significant earnings growth now and through the next five years, yielding a very substantial return to shareholders,” said Michael H. McCain, President and CEO. “The primary driver of this earnings growth will be increased efficiency throughout our manufacturing network, which represents the largest portion of our total cost structure. We expect to achieve this by reducing complexity, consolidating plants and investing in scale and technology. We intend to finance these initiatives through internal cash flow and debt capacity without issuing equity, while maintaining an investment grade balance sheet throughout the process.”

    Protein & Bakery EBITDA Targets
    -------------------------------

The plan provides for continued improvement in EBITDA margins and return on assets throughout the period from 2010 to 2015. Management has benchmarked its facilities to best in class operations in North America, and intends to deliver returns that will achieve sales margins consistent with large branded consumer packaged food peers in the United States. Implementation of the plan is expected to achieve annual earnings improvements and deliver EBITDA margins of 12.5% by 2015 as follows:

                    Protein        Bakery

    Current            6.2%          9.2%

    2012               8.5%         11.5%

    2015              12.5%         12.5%

The significant increase in earnings accruing from the plan will result in returns on assets employed well in excess of the Company’s weighted average cost of capital. Management is confident it will achieve these targets, with the majority of these gains coming from well-defined cost reductions.

“Maple Leaf is committed to creating significant and lasting shareholder value,” concluded Mr. McCain.

Commited to creating significant and lasting shareholder value.

I’ve been offering a way to deliver EBITDA margin increases for the last 18 months within the Fresh Bakery Division (representing a large portion of Maple Leaf’s portfolio).

When does management realize that Franchisees and the National Bread Network will create significant and lasting value for Maple Leaf Shareholders? 

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McCain’s Pay Keeps Pace

Posted by Jeff Lefler on October 2, 2010

From David Milstead at the Globe and Mail: As Maple Leaf lags, CEO’s pay keeps pace with the giants

Excerpts:

Michael McCain, CEO of Maple Leaf Foods Inc., has no peers among Canadian CEOs.

If you don’t believe me, check the company’s proxy circular, which shows the firm used only U.S. food companies – many of them international giants – for comparison in setting Mr. McCain’s pay package.

……….

So what if we redefine the peer group? What if we say the comparison should be to Canadian companies in the consumer staples and consumer discretionary sectors?

The results are not good for Mr. McCain. The two companies closest in annual revenue are Rona Corp., where CEO Robert Dutton made an average of $2.7-million (Canadian) over the last three years, and Sears Canada, where Dene Rogers averaged $2.3-million in 2008 and 2009.

Maple Leaf spokeswoman Lynda Kuhn says the company uses U.S. peers because Canada doesn’t have a large number of food companies. She notes the company’s outside compensation consultant also signed off on the methodology. “We see the talent market as North American in scope,” she added.

……….

Maple Leaf’s share-grant plan allows executives to keep half the performance shares no matter how poorly the company does.

The unfortunate result for Maple Leaf shareholders is that while Mr. McCain’s pay package is keeping pace with the industry’s giants, Maple Leaf’s performance is not. The company’s board might examine whether the two should be better linked.

Does the US comparison work for the rest of us too?

Posted in Ideas | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

 
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